As the United States heads toward the November 5 election, Northwestern University data scientist has issued a stunning prediction about the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Thomas Miller, who correctly called the outcome of the 2020 election, forecasted a landslide win for Democratic contender Harris.
“It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” data scientist Miller told Fortune Magazine.
Miller predicted the precise outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which he made by using betting markets instead of conventional surveys.
He accomplished this by creating a model that turned betting prices into forecasts of the popular vote and the Electoral College. The model, which is centered on 16 presidential contests, shows a weak association between popular vote and betting odds.
According to Miller’s forecast, as of September, Harris would have garnered 55% of the popular vote, which would give her a sizable advantage in the Electoral College.
His analysis also revealed that Harris’ popularity has grown in the last few months, despite the fact that Trump took a lead over Joe Biden in June.
However, the odds have changed significantly since Biden’s withdrawal from the White House race.
